Un colapso del mercado es requerido para una intervención de los bancos centrales…

 

En este mundo bizarro de inversiones, nada menos que Deutsche Bank, el mayor banco de Alemania, y por lo tanto quien dicta o asesora las políticas monetarias y financieras de todo Europa acaba de despacharse con estos comentarios:

A shock is required to get a liquidity response

It is possible in the context of more disorderly market scenarios that the ECB pre-empts the BLS to reengage the vLTRO policy which has, in Draghi’s view, already ‘broadly’ worked in similar market conditions.

En español, se necesitan demoliciones controladas de mercado para que exista la voluntad política de permitir que el BCE utilice su poder de fuego (AKA impresión o compra de activos basura desde los bancos que es lo que representaría un LTRO), es decir, se necesita un colapso del mercado, lo suficientemente terrorífico para detonar la respuesta de liquidez de los banqueros centrales, pero que no sea terminal. Una demolición controlada, si es que eso puede existir en los mercados financieros actuales.

Anteriormente Citi Group había expresado algo muy similar. Dos de los mayores bancos del mundo diciendo lo mismo.

Tal vez sea una buena idea eso del colchon bank después de todo…

A shock is required to get a liquidity response

Draghi discussed the concept of “adequate liquidity” on Friday. He differentiated between normal times, when the volume of liquidity is determined by banks’ obligatory reserve requirements and other autonomous factors, and times of financial instability, when the central bank must counteract bank funding market tensions and “systemic consequences”. Financial stability is an ECB responsibility. Compared to the comments from Draghi at the 6 June press conference, when the hurdles to more liquidity seemed high, there is more of a sense of ‘readiness to act’. That this message came right at the start of Draghi’s address to the ECB Watchers conference implies the importance of the ‘readiness’ message. The full allotment regime remains in place. Banks can get as much liquidity as they require for one week and for three months. The 3Y LTRO Draghi describes as having “broadly met” its objectives, specifically, easing credit constraints. He admitted it would take longer to judge full success (a flow of credit to the private sector), but demand may be weak. We have highlighted the importance of the next ECB Bank Lending Survey on 25 July of the ECB’s judgment regarding the need for additional vLTROs. It is possible in the context of more disorderly market scenarios that the ECB pre-empts the BLS to reengage the vLTRO policy which has, in Draghi’s view, already ‘broadly’ worked in similar market conditions.