Bank of America a sus clientes: Código Rojo, riesgo de liquidación de acciones es alto.

 

Risk of a sell-off is high

Economist Michael Hanson points out an interesting circular relationship between the stock market and Fed policy. There are some who believe the Fed will not launch QE3 so long as stock prices remain high, yet the stock market is high because it anticipates QE3. Should the Fed disappoint at the September 12-13 FOMC meeting, the risk of a stock sell-off is high. S&P 500 support on a correction is in the 1360-1325 area. Additional support is at 1300-1250. Attention will be on the Jackson Hole symposium next week to get a feel for the Fed’s tone.

The BofA strategists conclude that with the VIX at record low levels, those looking to hedge against a correction should buy put options on stocks while they are cheap, echoing a message several Wall Street analysts have relayed on television and in client notes over the past week.

En esencia, dada la relación circular entre las expectativas de QE3 y el valor de las acciones, estas deben bajar para que exista un estímulo, que no existirá mientras las acciones sigan altas. Entonces, la FED debe decepcionar de manera profunda (tópico tocado anteriormente) para generar la caída y la posterior intervención. La recomendación es poner puts sobre acciones (opciones de venta) ahora que em premium es bajo dada la poca volatilidad medida por el VIX. Esto podríamos llamarlo un indicador temprano. Si adicionalmente a esto tenemos a Goldman que recomiende comprar, estamos ad portas de una liquidación….