Dark Side of the moon…

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Este es un post dedicado a quienes leen el blog en búsqueda de la chispa que inicie el camino de adquirir conocimiento, que todos deberíamos intentar seguir. Lamentablemente algunas veces vemos sólo una parte de la realidad, y nos dejamos abatir por algo que parece no tener solución o final. Anyway, va un artículo, que no debería estar disponible en internet, donde es explicado de manera específica como se comportan los ciclos económicos, POR FAVOR, LEAN TODO 2 VECES HASTA QUE PENTERE EN EL CRÁNEO ESTE CONOCIMIENTO. Vean la realidad actual y comparen lo que dice el texto a continuación:

All people in a given section of a country use their credit at the same time because they are all governed by the same local conditions. Hence, there is a fictitious stimulation of prices which must come to an end. This end brings a financial depression which must necessarily follow a period of business activity.
When the people arrive at a point where their credit limit is reached there is necessarily a decrease in the demand for goods and property, and soon the supply becomes greater than the demand and prices begin to decline. This stops speculation. Thousands of people engaged in manufacturing or producing articles of general use are thus thrown out of employment, and this causes a still further decrease in the demand for goods, and hence a further decline in prices. Those who have purchased on credit find themselves subjected to heavy losses because they are compelled to sustain the depreciation on goods they do not own -- that is, goods bought on credit. Because of this decrease in valuations all are compelled to economize in order to adjust their expenses to the new order of things, they being compelled to pay off the accumulated indebtedness with the decreased income. This economy of the masses still further decreases the demand for goods and property and this still further increases the supply over the demand and decreases the prices, throwing more people out of employment and increasing the depressed condition of business.
The businessman feels the change in conditions as well as the laborer. Doing business largely on borrowed capital, he loses all the capital employed in the business, now alone on the money furnished by himself. The value of the business shrinks, but the debt remains the same or increases. Bankruptcy stares the business world in the face. The weaker go under while the stronger pull through, and sometimes make fortunes at a little later date out of the misfortunes of others.
Here is a condition of hard times. A large percentage of the laboring people of the world are thrown out of employment. Every time a man stops work - stops producing - his purchasing ability is impaired, the demand for goods becomes less and prices are lowered.
During the period of depression - the debt-paying period - the people at large are forced to economize. The earning capacity of all classes has been decreased. A large percentage of people are thrown out of steady employment and wages are reduced for those who do secure labor. Some earn enough to pay expenses of living economically, while others do not and are compelled to live in part on the limited accumulations of former more prosperous years.
Many business men continue in business: some are able to meet running expenses, while others prefer to lose a little each month, awaiting the return of better times, rather than to lose more heavily by retiring entirely from business. Many cannot stand the pressure and quit business, forced to lose the accumulations for years.
During the years of depression, values of all kinds of property shrink. In the case of encumbered property this shrinkage falls entirely on the margin and not on the debt. Sometimes it wipes out the margin and a portion of the debt also. Sometimes the margin is so nearly wiped out the the alleged owner of the property transfers his interest in the property to the one who holds the claim against it, and another debt is paid. Sometimes the holder of the debt declines to thus take the property and release the owner.
A person who does business on a credit basis, on borrowed capital(borrowed money/debt), makes larger profits during periods of prosperity when the prices are advancing than he who is on a cash basis, but he sustains larger losses during periods of depression when prices are dropping.
If a man could change quickly from a credit system to a cash basis as soon as the period of prosperity closes he would be all right, but he is in debt, and the debt must be paid, and hence it is not usually practical to make the change. If it were he would not be in debt.
Gradually the surplus debts of the country are paid and the people breathe easier again. People live within their incomes and temporarily learn economical habits. Men smoke fewer and cheaper cigars and ladies purchase fewer ribbons and occasionally fix over a bonnet and dress instead of getting new ones.
A time is finally reached when people begin to get out of debt, and then they begin to live a little better, buy more of the necessaries of life and some of the luxuries. As the number of people in such improved condition increases, trade begins to pick up; larger orders are sent to the factories, more wheels are set in motion, more operatives are employed and more people are placed in position to buy more goods, which in turn starts more mills and gives employment to still more men.
Thus the business of the country is forced into an active condition, and thus business activity increases in geometrical progression until wages reach their maximum point, factories are running to their utmost capacity, prices of all kinds of goods and all kinds of property advance, and people begin to purchase again more than they have the money to pay for -- some because they want profits on increasing valuations and others simply because of extravagant ideas of living.
Money is plenty, credits are good, and the masses are good pay because all kinds of property are convertible into legal tender. Improvements, public and private, are pushed to their utmost extent, fancy prices are paid for real estate because it can be sold readily again at still more fancy prices. Individuals of limited capital hold thousands and hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of property on which only a small payment has been made. And advance of five per cent on the price of the property is an advance of 50 or 100 per cent or more on the cash investment. Another transfer is made and another soul is made happy.
In short, a speculative boom has struck the country again gradually but surely. This speculative boom is not the result of any movement on the part of the people or any portion of them to create a boom, but it is the result of natural laws of business and is just as certain to materialize as a good crop is sure to be the result of favorable climatic conditions.
It is not, perhaps, in order here to discuss the millionaire question or inquire into the trust combinations which threaten to disturb so seriously the business interests of the country. It is, however, safe to say that those who think during a period of business activity that such activity will always continue are just as much mistaken as are those who believe during a period of business depression that such business depression will never come to an end.
Good times will follow bad times, and bad times will follow good times just as surely as darkness follows day, and day follows darkness. These periods always have followed each other and they always will.
The seeds of prosperity are planted during the periods of financial depression, and the seeds of hard times are just as surely sown during the period of business activity and the speculative boom. There is no question as to the soundness of this conclusion. There is no question that these changes will come. The only question is -- when?

Este artículo fue escrito en 1902…yep…

Las personas inteligentes entenderán lo que está escrito, por qué las cosas no pueden ser cambiadas,  y francamente, sabiendo todo lo anterior, no tendría ningún sentido el intentar hacerlo.

Para quienes pregunten porqué no está en español, -------------->>>

ahí está el traductor…

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